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The American Farm Bureau's economist John Newton reports that recent COVID-19-related price volatility and a 2018 farm bill pricing change are likely to produce negative producer price differentials in Federal Milk Marketing Order revenue pools. These negative PPDs are expected to offset $5 to $7 per hundredweight of recent milk price gains for some farmers and prompt large volumes of manufacturing milk to be de-pooled.
Negative PPDs reduce farm-level milk returns even as wholesale dairy prices rally, which can change milk marketing and supply decisions. De-pooling shifts milk out of the pools, affecting how much milk reaches the market and the price farmers actually receive.
fb.orgJohn Newton, Ph.D.Jun 30, 2020After 24 past bearish policy events, MILK moved a median -0.1% over 5 sessions (33% higher; middle half -1.8% to +0.5%), and -4.6% over 20.
Moves of each commodity's benchmark from the last close before the event. Historical reads pool past events of the same kind; they describe what happened, not what will. Not investment advice.
