
Data from USDA AMS showed negative producer price differentials across the seven multiple-component pricing orders totaled -$528 million in June 2020, the largest in California. Mass de-pooling of milk and a 2018 farm bill formula change contributed to the record negative PPDs.
Record negative PPDs lower the effective farm-gate milk price and signal disruption in the pool, which can reduce dairy herd size and feed buying over time.
After 24 past bearish policy events, Milk (Class III) moved a median -0.1% over 5 sessions (33% higher; middle half -1.8% to +0.5%), and -4.6% over 20.
Moves of each commodity's benchmark from the last close before the event. Historical reads pool past events of the same kind; they describe what happened, not what will. Not investment advice.