Trump’s $28 Billion Trade War Bailout Is Overpaying Farmers

After 310 past bearish policy events, Corn moved a median +0.3% over 5 sessions (54% higher; middle half -1.4% to +1.9%), and +0.6% over 20.

• Aug 27, 2018Trump farm bailout to provide $6 billion in initial relief+0.5%
• Apr 9, 2025US Weighs Farmer Bailout as China Threatens Retaliation - Bloomberg+3.4%
• Aug 28, 2018Trump's Farmer Bailout: Half Now, the Rest Later – Maybe+0.8%
• Apr 18, 2025Multibillion US farm, protein trade face choppy waters over ship fees | S&P Global-0.1%
• Jul 24, 2018USDA announces $12 billion in programs for farmers affected by trade war - Agweek | #1 source for agriculture news, farming, markets+1.7%

After 369 past bearish policy events, Soybeans moved a median -0.2% over 5 sessions (46% higher; middle half -1.7% to +1.8%), and +0.8% over 20.

• Jul 24, 2018US to give farmers $12bn trade war bailout+3.2%
• Aug 27, 2018Trump farm bailout to provide $6 billion in initial relief-1.1%
• Apr 9, 2025US Weighs Farmer Bailout as China Threatens Retaliation - Bloomberg+4.4%
• Aug 28, 2018Trump's Farmer Bailout: Half Now, the Rest Later – Maybe-0.3%
• Apr 18, 2025Multibillion US farm, protein trade face choppy waters over ship fees | S&P Global+1.3%