USDA's Farm Service Agency administrator discussed the Market Facilitation Program, with signup starting September 4 and payments for corn and soybean producers waiting until after harvest. USDA's quarterly trade outlook projects lower agricultural exports to China.
Payment timing shapes farmer marketing decisions, and the projected drop in Chinese agricultural imports supports a bearish export outlook for US feed grains and oilseeds.
After 369 past bearish policy events, SOY moved a median -0.2% over 5 sessions (46% higher; middle half -1.7% to +1.8%), and +0.8% over 20.
After 310 past bearish policy events, CORN moved a median +0.3% over 5 sessions (54% higher; middle half -1.4% to +1.9%), and +0.6% over 20.
Moves of each commodity's benchmark from the last close before the event. Historical reads pool past events of the same kind; they describe what happened, not what will. Not investment advice.