
U.S. Agriculture Secretary Tom Vilsack told the House Agriculture Committee that China fell about $13 to $16 billion short of its Phase One agricultural purchase commitments. The Biden administration is pressing Beijing to meet the commitments now that the deal's two-year period has ended.
Unmet Chinese purchase commitments leave potential export demand for U.S. grains and oilseeds on the table, which is a bearish factor for U.S. export prices if buying does not pick up.
After 369 past bearish policy events, SOY moved a median -0.2% over 5 sessions (46% higher; middle half -1.7% to +1.8%), and +0.8% over 20.
After 310 past bearish policy events, CORN moved a median +0.3% over 5 sessions (54% higher; middle half -1.4% to +1.9%), and +0.6% over 20.
After 122 past bearish policy events, WHEAT moved a median -0.3% over 5 sessions (44% higher; middle half -1.9% to +1.2%), and +0.4% over 20.
Moves of each commodity's benchmark from the last close before the event. Historical reads pool past events of the same kind; they describe what happened, not what will. Not investment advice.