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An analysis from University of Illinois and Ohio State economists projects that overall commodity program payments for row crops would rise at least 77% under the House farm bill. Soybean and wheat payments could rise about 80%, while corn payments would rise about 36%.
Southern crops such as cotton, rice and peanuts would see payments more than double.
Larger subsidy payments could keep acreage in production and weigh on prices over time, with the greatest effect on rice and southern crops.
agri-pulse.comPhilip BrasherMay 22, 2024After 100 past bearish policy events, RICE moved a median -0.1% over 5 sessions (49% higher; middle half -1.7% to +1.6%), and +0.1% over 20.
After 369 past bearish policy events, SOY moved a median -0.2% over 5 sessions (46% higher; middle half -1.7% to +1.8%), and +0.8% over 20.
After 122 past bearish policy events, WHEAT moved a median -0.3% over 5 sessions (44% higher; middle half -1.9% to +1.2%), and +0.4% over 20.
After 310 past bearish policy events, CORN moved a median +0.3% over 5 sessions (54% higher; middle half -1.4% to +1.9%), and +0.6% over 20.
Moves of each commodity's benchmark from the last close before the event. Historical reads pool past events of the same kind; they describe what happened, not what will. Not investment advice.
