
Chicago wheat futures fell more than 3% on Monday July 7, 2025, as Northern Hemisphere harvest supplies weighed on prices. Russia cut its wheat export tax to zero, the first removal since its 2021 introduction.
Corn and soybeans fell about 1.3% on favorable US weather and expectations of bumper production.
Russia's export tax removal increases competitive wheat supply from the largest exporter, adding downward pressure on global wheat prices.
After 122 past bearish policy events, WHEAT moved a median -0.3% over 5 sessions (44% higher; middle half -1.9% to +1.2%), and +0.4% over 20.
After 15 past bearish policy events, KWHEAT moved a median -1.6% over 5 sessions (40% higher; middle half -3.7% to +3.1%), and +3.1% over 20.
After 310 past bearish policy events, CORN moved a median +0.3% over 5 sessions (54% higher; middle half -1.4% to +1.9%), and +0.6% over 20.
After 369 past bearish policy events, SOY moved a median -0.2% over 5 sessions (46% higher; middle half -1.7% to +1.8%), and +0.8% over 20.
Moves of each commodity's benchmark from the last close before the event. Historical reads pool past events of the same kind; they describe what happened, not what will. Not investment advice.
On July 7 corn fell about 1.3% on favorable US weather and bumper crop expectations, with wheat down over 3% on harvest pressure, directly adding to the 5-day decline.