Global wheat rally revives India's export prospects as government allows 5 million tonnes of wheat exports after a four-year ban

After 122 past bearish policy events, WHEAT moved a median -0.3% over 5 sessions (44% higher; middle half -1.9% to +1.2%), and +0.4% over 20.

• Jul 10, 2024Government to resume wheat sale from FCI stock; may take a call on lifting ban in rice exports - Times of India-4.1%
• Jan 30, 2026Govt likely to consider allowing export of wheat | India News - The Times of India-0.3%
• Feb 13, 2026After 4 years, India allows wheat export | India News - The Indian Express+0.9%
• Feb 24, 2026India allows export of 25 lakh tonnes of wheat despite overall ban - CNBC TV18+0.6%
• Jan 26, 2023India to release 3 mil mt wheat from government stocks to rein in prices | S&P Global+3.7%

After 15 past bearish policy events, KWHEAT moved a median -1.6% over 5 sessions (40% higher; middle half -3.7% to +3.1%), and +3.1% over 20.

• Feb 13, 2026After 4 years, India allows wheat export | India News - The Indian Express+3.3%
• Apr 23, 2022Rules block India’s efforts: WTO to help untie wheat export knot - Economy News | The Financial Express-4.2%
• Feb 25, 2026India permits 25 lakh tonnes wheat export; FCI stocks at 182 lakh tonnes - The HinduBusinessLine+2.9%
• Jul 10, 2025Russia orders measures to boost agriculture exports after wheat sales fall in July+3.4%
• Mar 29, 2021Black Sea wheat sharply lower on new crop prospects, Russian farmers hope that the tax will be lifted in 2021 - The Sizov Report blog-0.9%