
Chicago soyoil hit about an 18-month high on biofuel blending proposals, while favorable US weather drove wheat and corn lower. Crude oil fell after Israel-Iran strikes left oil facilities unaffected, removing some support for soybeans.
Biofuel demand supports soyoil and soybean prices, but easing crude and good crop weather reduce the bullish pressure on the soy complex and weigh on grains.
After 842 past bullish policy events, SBO moved a median +0.2% over 5 sessions (52% higher; middle half -1.6% to +2.1%), and -0.5% over 20.
After 356 past bullish policy events, SOY moved a median +0.1% over 5 sessions (53% higher; middle half -1.2% to +2.3%), and -0.9% over 20.
After 310 past bearish policy events, CORN moved a median +0.3% over 5 sessions (54% higher; middle half -1.4% to +1.9%), and +0.6% over 20.
After 122 past bearish policy events, WHEAT moved a median -0.3% over 5 sessions (44% higher; middle half -1.9% to +1.2%), and +0.4% over 20.
Moves of each commodity's benchmark from the last close before the event. Historical reads pool past events of the same kind; they describe what happened, not what will. Not investment advice.
Soyoil at 18-month highs on blending proposals continued the rally, though crude retreated somewhat.