
The American Soybean Association warns that proposed EPA small refinery exemptions for the 2025 RFS could total up to 1.8 billion RINs, removing roughly 900 million to 1 billion gallons of biofuel from the market unless reallocated. ASA estimates the policy could cut the soybean cash price by about 22 cents per bushel and reduce crop value by more than $1 billion.
Reduced biomass-based diesel demand would weaken soybean oil use and soybean crush economics, bearing on soybean prices, with reallocation as the key offset.
After 351 past bearish policy events, SBO moved a median -0.0% over 5 sessions (49% higher; middle half -1.7% to +1.8%), and -0.2% over 20.
After 369 past bearish policy events, SOY moved a median -0.2% over 5 sessions (46% higher; middle half -1.7% to +1.8%), and +0.8% over 20.
Moves of each commodity's benchmark from the last close before the event. Historical reads pool past events of the same kind; they describe what happened, not what will. Not investment advice.