EPA granted 31 of 38 small refinery exemption applications for the 2018 compliance year, which the American Soybean Association said cut biodiesel demand. The group estimated lost biodiesel demand from retroactive exemptions at up to 2.5 billion gallons since 2017.
Lost biofuel demand from refinery waivers reduces soybean oil use and weighs on soybean prices.
After 351 past bearish policy events, Soybean Oil moved a median -0.0% over 5 sessions (49% higher; middle half -1.7% to +1.8%), and -0.2% over 20.
After 369 past bearish policy events, Soybeans moved a median -0.2% over 5 sessions (46% higher; middle half -1.7% to +1.8%), and +0.8% over 20.
Moves of each commodity's benchmark from the last close before the event. Historical reads pool past events of the same kind; they describe what happened, not what will. Not investment advice.