
EPA released final 2023-2025 Renewable Volume Obligations on June 21, with blending levels for biomass-based diesel below market expectations. Soybean oil futures fell by the daily limit of four cents per pound, and biomass-based diesel RIN credits dropped from $1.47 to $1.36.
Lower-than-expected biofuel mandates reduce expected demand for soybean oil from renewable diesel producers, which is bearish for soy oil prices and soybean crush margins.
After 351 past bearish policy events, Soybean Oil moved a median -0.0% over 5 sessions (49% higher; middle half -1.7% to +1.8%), and -0.2% over 20.
After 369 past bearish policy events, Soybeans moved a median -0.2% over 5 sessions (46% higher; middle half -1.7% to +1.8%), and +0.8% over 20.
Moves of each commodity's benchmark from the last close before the event. Historical reads pool past events of the same kind; they describe what happened, not what will. Not investment advice.