
Soybean and soyoil futures fell on May 15 after reports that the EPA proposed a much lower 2026 biodiesel and renewable diesel blending target than industry sought. July soyoil dropped its 3-cent limit, while corn and wheat rallied on strong export sales.
The lower proposed biofuel mandate cuts expected soybean oil demand, pressuring soybean complex prices, while grain strength came from export demand rather than policy.
After 351 past bearish policy events, Soybean Oil moved a median -0.0% over 5 sessions (49% higher; middle half -1.7% to +1.8%), and -0.2% over 20.
After 369 past bearish policy events, Soybeans moved a median -0.2% over 5 sessions (46% higher; middle half -1.7% to +1.8%), and +0.8% over 20.
Moves of each commodity's benchmark from the last close before the event. Historical reads pool past events of the same kind; they describe what happened, not what will. Not investment advice.