
Fewer than a quarter of US ethanol plants are running at full capacity, with 73 fully idled as of early May. Biofuel advocates say producers can still meet the 2020 blending targets, while oil companies say they will struggle to blend the required volumes.
Idled ethanol plants cut demand for corn and soybean oil, which pressures feedstock prices, and the dispute over compliance could affect future RFS policy.
After 310 past bearish policy events, Corn moved a median +0.3% over 5 sessions (54% higher; middle half -1.4% to +1.9%), and +0.6% over 20.
After 351 past bearish policy events, Soybean Oil moved a median -0.0% over 5 sessions (49% higher; middle half -1.7% to +1.8%), and -0.2% over 20.
Moves of each commodity's benchmark from the last close before the event. Historical reads pool past events of the same kind; they describe what happened, not what will. Not investment advice.