
Biodiesel producers were downbeat about the EPA's July 5 proposal, which freezes the biomass-based diesel target at 2.1 billion gallons through 2019 and lowers the 2018 advanced biofuel mandate to 4.24 billion gallons. The agency also said it is considering using its statutory authority to reduce future advanced biofuel targets.
A possible future cut to advanced biofuel targets raises the risk of weaker soybean oil demand, which weighs on soyoil prices and the crush margin behind soymeal.
After 351 past bearish policy events, SBO moved a median -0.0% over 5 sessions (49% higher; middle half -1.7% to +1.8%), and -0.2% over 20.
After 206 past neutral policy events, SBM moved a median -0.4% over 5 sessions (44% higher; middle half -2.3% to +1.8%), and -0.7% over 20.
Moves of each commodity's benchmark from the last close before the event. Historical reads pool past events of the same kind; they describe what happened, not what will. Not investment advice.