
Iowa's 12 biodiesel plants produced a record 365 million gallons in 2018, up 80 million gallons from the prior year. The rebound followed a sharp drop in biodiesel imports after US duties on Argentine and Indonesian biodiesel.
Strong domestic biodiesel output increases crush demand for soybeans and uses more soybean oil, supporting soy oil prices and the crush margin that feeds soybean meal supply.
After 842 past bullish policy events, Soybean Oil moved a median +0.2% over 5 sessions (52% higher; middle half -1.6% to +2.1%), and -0.5% over 20.
After 356 past bullish policy events, Soybeans moved a median +0.1% over 5 sessions (53% higher; middle half -1.2% to +2.3%), and -0.9% over 20.
After 206 past neutral policy events, Soybean Meal moved a median -0.4% over 5 sessions (44% higher; middle half -2.3% to +1.8%), and -0.7% over 20.
Moves of each commodity's benchmark from the last close before the event. Historical reads pool past events of the same kind; they describe what happened, not what will. Not investment advice.