
Iowa biodiesel output reached a record 297 million gallons in 2016, up 23% from 242 million in 2015. Producers credit federal policy certainty, including the biodiesel tax incentive and the Renewable Fuel Standard.
The federal biodiesel tax credit expired on December 31, 2016, and its renewal remains uncertain.
Strong biodiesel output supports soybean oil demand, but the lapsed tax credit adds uncertainty that could slow 2017 production and cut soybean oil use.
After 842 past bullish policy events, Soybean Oil moved a median +0.2% over 5 sessions (52% higher; middle half -1.6% to +2.1%), and -0.5% over 20.
Moves of each commodity's benchmark from the last close before the event. Historical reads pool past events of the same kind; they describe what happened, not what will. Not investment advice.