The Biodiesel DAP Paulínia spot price hit a 2024 high of Real 6,115/m³ on October 24, up about 30% year on year. The rise reflects high soybean oil prices, a soybean oil shortage in Mato Grosso, and a blending mandate increase to 14%.
Stronger biodiesel prices support soybean oil demand and crush margins, which tends to lift soybean oil and boost meal supply as a byproduct.
After 842 past bullish policy events, Soybean Oil moved a median +0.2% over 5 sessions (52% higher; middle half -1.6% to +2.1%), and -0.5% over 20.
After 206 past neutral policy events, Soybean Meal moved a median -0.4% over 5 sessions (44% higher; middle half -2.3% to +1.8%), and -0.7% over 20.
Moves of each commodity's benchmark from the last close before the event. Historical reads pool past events of the same kind; they describe what happened, not what will. Not investment advice.