
Renewable diesel has overtaken biodiesel in total capacity and is strong on the West Coast, while biodiesel remains favored in the Midwest. Renewable diesel capacity could exceed available soybean oil supply, raising questions about whether there is enough feedstock for both fuels.
Soybean supply competition is shaping the market.
Competition for limited soybean oil between biodiesel and renewable diesel plants supports soybean oil and soybean prices. Feedstock tightness would lift vegetable oil values relative to meal.
After 842 past bullish policy events, Soybean Oil moved a median +0.2% over 5 sessions (52% higher; middle half -1.6% to +2.1%), and -0.5% over 20.
After 356 past bullish policy events, Soybeans moved a median +0.1% over 5 sessions (53% higher; middle half -1.2% to +2.3%), and -0.9% over 20.
Moves of each commodity's benchmark from the last close before the event. Historical reads pool past events of the same kind; they describe what happened, not what will. Not investment advice.