
EPA granted 1.76 billion RINs of small refinery exemptions for 2025 and plans to reallocate about 770 million RINs above prior assumptions into 2026-2027 obligations. Current standards imply biomass-based diesel production must rise more than 60% from 2025 levels.
Higher biodiesel production requirements increase competition for soybean oil, used cooking oil, canola oil and animal fats, supporting prices for these feedstocks.
After 842 past bullish policy events, Soybean Oil moved a median +0.2% over 5 sessions (52% higher; middle half -1.6% to +2.1%), and -0.5% over 20.
Not enough comparable past events yet for a historical read.
After 356 past bullish policy events, Soybeans moved a median +0.1% over 5 sessions (53% higher; middle half -1.2% to +2.3%), and -0.9% over 20.
Moves of each commodity's benchmark from the last close before the event. Historical reads pool past events of the same kind; they describe what happened, not what will. Not investment advice.