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Renewable diesel is poised for a major production year in 2022 as new plants start up. Credit values under the RFS, California LCFS and the federal blending credit are under pressure from new supply, while feedstock supply is a constraint and renewable diesel trades at a large premium to conventional diesel.
Strong feedstock demand from new renewable diesel output supports vegetable oil prices, but falling credit values and feedstock tightness could slow plant ramp-up and limit that demand.
spglobal.comJosh Pedrick, Janet McGurtyFeb 7, 2022After 842 past bullish policy events, Soybean Oil moved a median +0.2% over 5 sessions (52% higher; middle half -1.6% to +2.1%), and -0.5% over 20.
After 27 past neutral policy events, ULSD / Diesel moved a median -1.4% over 5 sessions (41% higher; middle half -4.3% to +2.6%), and -4.6% over 20.
Moves of each commodity's benchmark from the last close before the event. Historical reads pool past events of the same kind; they describe what happened, not what will. Not investment advice.
