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S&P Global analysts expect US renewable diesel output to rise 13% in 2025, supported by the Clean Fuel Production Credit, while US biodiesel production is forecast to fall about 5.6% to 1.538 billion gallons. The credit pays up to $1 per gallon for non-SAF fuel and $1.75 per gallon for SAF, tied to carbon intensity and wage standards, and expires in 2027.
Shifting output from fatty acid methyl ester biodiesel to renewable diesel changes demand for soybean oil and other feedstocks, and the credit is expected to cut imports, which tends to support domestic feedstock prices.
spglobal.comMaria jose Parra, Ivan Lopez aranaDec 30, 2024After 196 past neutral policy events, Soybean Oil moved a median +0.1% over 5 sessions (52% higher; middle half -1.6% to +2.0%), and -0.5% over 20.
After 27 past neutral policy events, ULSD / Diesel moved a median -1.4% over 5 sessions (41% higher; middle half -4.3% to +2.6%), and -4.6% over 20.
Moves of each commodity's benchmark from the last close before the event. Historical reads pool past events of the same kind; they describe what happened, not what will. Not investment advice.
