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University of Illinois farmdoc researchers argue that a binding RFS volume mandate, rather than tax credits, determines biomass-based diesel demand. They examine alternative scenarios for 2026 RVOs and what each implies for the BBD demand ceiling.
The piece is part of a series on the renewable diesel boom.
The size of the 2026 RVO sets the demand ceiling for soybean oil going into biofuels, so scenarios that lower mandates would be bearish for soybean oil prices.
farmdocdaily.illinois.eduHongxia JiaoFeb 1, 2025After 196 past neutral policy events, Soybean Oil moved a median +0.1% over 5 sessions (52% higher; middle half -1.6% to +2.0%), and -0.5% over 20.
Moves of each commodity's benchmark from the last close before the event. Historical reads pool past events of the same kind; they describe what happened, not what will. Not investment advice.
