Renewable fuel credits for 2026 reached record levels, with D4 RINs for biodiesel and renewable diesel trading at $2.32 on a Friday in early June. D6 RINs for ethanol also hit a record.
Analysts attribute the rise to EPA biomass-based diesel mandates set in March and to swings in diesel prices tied to Iran war developments.
Higher RIN prices raise the value of biofuel production, supporting demand for soybean oil and other biofuel feedstocks and making the biodiesel margin more attractive.
After 842 past bullish policy events, Soybean Oil moved a median +0.2% over 5 sessions (52% higher; middle half -1.6% to +2.1%), and -0.5% over 20.
After 27 past neutral policy events, ULSD / Diesel moved a median -1.4% over 5 sessions (41% higher; middle half -4.3% to +2.6%), and -4.6% over 20.
Moves of each commodity's benchmark from the last close before the event. Historical reads pool past events of the same kind; they describe what happened, not what will. Not investment advice.