US fuelmakers sold renewable identification credits (RINs) to lock in profits after the spread between soybean oil and heating oil futures widened in August to its largest in over a year. Refiners are also producing more diesel, which squeezes gasoline margins.
Heavy RIN selling and diesel output reflect strong biofuel economics that pull soybean oil into renewable diesel, but falling RIN values can weaken that demand and pressure soyoil prices.
After 196 past neutral policy events, Soybean Oil moved a median +0.1% over 5 sessions (52% higher; middle half -1.6% to +2.0%), and -0.5% over 20.
After 27 past neutral policy events, ULSD / Diesel moved a median -1.4% over 5 sessions (41% higher; middle half -4.3% to +2.6%), and -4.6% over 20.
Moves of each commodity's benchmark from the last close before the event. Historical reads pool past events of the same kind; they describe what happened, not what will. Not investment advice.