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NPR reports that about 3 billion gallons of mostly soybean-oil-based biodiesel will be burned in US heavy trucks this year because the Renewable Fuel Standard requires it. An economist estimates biodiesel costs about $1.80 per gallon more than petroleum diesel, roughly $5.4 billion a year.
The mandate underpins demand for soybean oil, so political pressure to cut it is a downside risk for soybean oil prices and soybean crush margins.
After 554 past neutral policy events, Soybeans moved a median +0.0% over 5 sessions (51% higher; middle half -1.4% to +1.6%), and +0.6% over 20.
After 196 past neutral policy events, Soybean Oil moved a median +0.1% over 5 sessions (52% higher; middle half -1.6% to +2.0%), and -0.5% over 20.
Moves of each commodity's benchmark from the last close before the event. Historical reads pool past events of the same kind; they describe what happened, not what will. Not investment advice.
