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Research from Farmdoc shows that soybean oil and palm oil prices have moved together less closely since 2020. Their price gap now diverges more often and for longer periods.
The authors attribute this to biofuel-driven shocks that are becoming more regional or national.
Weaker co-movement means soyoil and palm oil can no longer be priced as close substitutes, so buyers should expect wider and more persistent spreads. Regional biofuel policy will increasingly drive which oil is cheaper.
agriculture.comFarmdocDec 29, 2025After 196 past neutral policy events, SBO moved a median +0.1% over 5 sessions (52% higher; middle half -1.6% to +2.0%), and -0.5% over 20.
After 513 past neutral policy events, PALMOIL moved a median 0.0% over 5 sessions (50% higher; middle half -1.6% to +1.4%), and -0.1% over 20.
Moves of each commodity's benchmark from the last close before the event. Historical reads pool past events of the same kind; they describe what happened, not what will. Not investment advice.
