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Fastmarkets provides an outlook for South American soybean oil in 2026, citing Brazil's postponed B15-to-B16 biodiesel increase and the US EPA's new Renewable Volume Obligations. Brazil and Argentina are expected to harvest a combined record of about 228 million tonnes.
Brazil's soy oil exports have risen year-on-year and South American cash export premiums have fallen to historic lows.
Brazil's delayed biodiesel increase keeps more soy oil available for export, which weighs on international soy oil pricing. The US mandate and crude volatility remain the main offsetting supports.
fastmarkets.comEduardo TintiJun 1, 2026After 196 past neutral policy events, Soybean Oil moved a median +0.1% over 5 sessions (52% higher; middle half -1.6% to +2.0%), and -0.5% over 20.
Moves of each commodity's benchmark from the last close before the event. Historical reads pool past events of the same kind; they describe what happened, not what will. Not investment advice.
