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Irwin said renewable biodiesel demand rests on multiple government policies and would largely disappear without them, since it costs roughly $1.50 to $2 per gallon more than regular diesel. A CoBank scenario from 2022 projected large additional soybean acreage needs, which Irwin considers unlikely.
Because demand depends on policy rather than fuel economics, the expected soybean price lift from biofuels is more modest, limiting upside for soybean oil and soybeans.
farmprogress.comTom J. BechmanJan 30, 2024After 196 past neutral policy events, Soybean Oil moved a median +0.1% over 5 sessions (52% higher; middle half -1.6% to +2.0%), and -0.5% over 20.
After 554 past neutral policy events, Soybeans moved a median +0.0% over 5 sessions (51% higher; middle half -1.4% to +1.6%), and +0.6% over 20.
Moves of each commodity's benchmark from the last close before the event. Historical reads pool past events of the same kind; they describe what happened, not what will. Not investment advice.
