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South America's soybean oil markets are diverging heading into 2026. Brazil's domestic demand is being driven by biodiesel blending, which rose to 15%, and is absorbing supply that once went to exports.
Argentina's prices remain tied to international demand, and S&P Global expects a record Brazilian crush.
Higher Brazilian biodiesel use keeps more soyoil at home, which tightens exportable supply and supports world soyoil prices. Proposed Indonesian B50 and Brazilian B16 mandates could reshape global vegetable oil balances.
ukragroconsult.comDec 31, 2025After 842 past bullish policy events, Soybean Oil moved a median +0.2% over 5 sessions (52% higher; middle half -1.6% to +2.1%), and -0.5% over 20.
After 513 past neutral policy events, Palm Oil moved a median 0.0% over 5 sessions (50% higher; middle half -1.6% to +1.4%), and -0.1% over 20.
Moves of each commodity's benchmark from the last close before the event. Historical reads pool past events of the same kind; they describe what happened, not what will. Not investment advice.
