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CBOT soybean oil rose 7% after the US government published its 2017 biofuel framework, which set the renewable fuel target at 19.28 billion gallons. Soybean futures firmed in sympathy, while soybean meal fell and wheat and corn were roughly unchanged amid a strong dollar.
The higher renewable volume requirement pulls soybean oil stocks lower, as the USDA's end-2016/17 soyoil stock estimate is expected to fall sharply, supporting oil prices. Meal weakens because crushing for oil output adds meal supply.
zmp.deNov 24, 2016After 841 past bullish policy events, SBO moved a median +0.2% over 5 sessions (52% higher; middle half -1.6% to +2.1%), and -0.5% over 20.
After 356 past bullish policy events, SOY moved a median +0.1% over 5 sessions (53% higher; middle half -1.2% to +2.3%), and -0.9% over 20.
After 222 past bearish policy events, SBM moved a median -0.3% over 5 sessions (45% higher; middle half -2.1% to +1.2%), and -0.6% over 20.
Moves of each commodity's benchmark from the last close before the event. Historical reads pool past events of the same kind; they describe what happened, not what will. Not investment advice.
