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Reuters industry commentary says soybean oil commands a smaller premium under the new policy because of its relatively high carbon intensity. The shift from the 40A blending credit to the 45Z production credit disrupted the market in early 2025 and reduced biomass-based diesel output and soybean oil feedstock demand.
Policy-driven swings in biofuel feedstock demand feed directly into soybean oil prices, and lower biodiesel output reduces the crush margin support for meal.
reuters.comTarso Veloso, CME GroupAug 18, 2025After 351 past bearish policy events, SBO moved a median -0.0% over 5 sessions (49% higher; middle half -1.7% to +1.8%), and -0.2% over 20.
After 222 past bearish policy events, SBM moved a median -0.3% over 5 sessions (45% higher; middle half -2.1% to +1.2%), and -0.6% over 20.
Moves of each commodity's benchmark from the last close before the event. Historical reads pool past events of the same kind; they describe what happened, not what will. Not investment advice.
