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December soybean oil futures fell 4% to about $1,134/t on the Friday after Thanksgiving after the US Fifth Circuit Court of Appeals sided with several small refiners (Ergon, Calumet Shreveport, Placid) that challenged EPA's rejection of their small-refinery exemption petitions. The court ruled the EPA's waiver denials were impermissibly retroactive and inconsistent with law.
Palm oil on Bursa Malaysia also fell 1.55%.
A ruling that lets small refiners skip RFS blending obligations and tradable credit purchases reduces expected biofuel demand for soybean oil, the main support for US crush-driven oil prices, so the price implication is bearish for soybean oil and palm oil.
ukragroconsult.comNov 27, 2023After 351 past bearish policy events, SBO moved a median -0.0% over 5 sessions (49% higher; middle half -1.7% to +1.8%), and -0.2% over 20.
After 400 past bearish policy events, PALMOIL moved a median -0.0% over 5 sessions (49% higher; middle half -1.3% to +1.1%), and +0.2% over 20.
After 369 past bearish policy events, SOY moved a median -0.2% over 5 sessions (46% higher; middle half -1.7% to +1.8%), and +0.8% over 20.
Moves of each commodity's benchmark from the last close before the event. Historical reads pool past events of the same kind; they describe what happened, not what will. Not investment advice.
