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July Chicago soybean oil fell 3.2% to $1,035/ton on Friday, down about 5% over three sessions and a month, amid reduced export demand for US oil, possible cancellation of duties on Canadian rapeseed oil used in US biofuel, and reports the White House will not cut small refinery biofuel mandates. July Brent fell 2.4% over two sessions to $62.8/barrel after OPEC+ agreed to raise output, though prices rebounded Monday.
India cut its basic crude edible oil import duty from 27.5% to 16.5% on May 30.
Uncertainty over US biofuel blending demand and weaker crude weigh on soyoil prices, while India's duty cut should lift import demand for vegetable oils and support palm and soy oil prices, which feeds into soymeal and feed-fat supply.
tridge.comVictor LangatJun 2, 2025After 351 past bearish policy events, SBO moved a median -0.0% over 5 sessions (49% higher; middle half -1.7% to +1.8%), and -0.2% over 20.
After 548 past bullish policy events, PALMOIL moved a median +0.4% over 5 sessions (61% higher; middle half -0.7% to +2.1%), and +0.9% over 20.
After 210 past bearish policy events, BRENT moved a median -0.9% over 5 sessions (48% higher; middle half -3.8% to +3.2%), and +0.2% over 20.
Moves of each commodity's benchmark from the last close before the event. Historical reads pool past events of the same kind; they describe what happened, not what will. Not investment advice.
Biofuel policy uncertainty (no SRE mandate cut, possible removal of duties on Canadian canola oil for US biofuel) and weak export demand and crude weakness pressured soyoil, though this describes the prior Friday's decline.
