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The Illinois Soybean Association says the industry is still waiting for 45Z guidance and renewable volume obligations. Soybean crush remains well below year-ago levels, and RIN generation is running 33% lower than a year earlier.
The White House OMB said more 45Z details are expected in May.
Lower crush and RIN generation signal weak domestic soybean oil and meal demand. Pending guidance is the main catalyst that could lift soybean prices later in the year.
brownfieldagnews.comJared WhiteJan 30, 2026After 351 past bearish policy events, SBO moved a median -0.0% over 5 sessions (49% higher; middle half -1.7% to +1.8%), and -0.2% over 20.
After 369 past bearish policy events, SOY moved a median -0.2% over 5 sessions (46% higher; middle half -1.7% to +1.8%), and +0.8% over 20.
After 223 past bearish policy events, SBM moved a median -0.3% over 5 sessions (45% higher; middle half -2.2% to +1.2%), and -0.6% over 20.
Moves of each commodity's benchmark from the last close before the event. Historical reads pool past events of the same kind; they describe what happened, not what will. Not investment advice.
