
Soybeans were lower on commercial and technical selling as US-China trade tensions weighed ahead of Chinese tariffs taking effect July 6. The crop was 73% good to excellent and a USDA report was due Friday, with soybean meal and oil mostly lower.
Corn finished modestly higher on short covering, and the EPA confirmed a higher 2019 biofuels mandate.
The EPA biofuels mandate supports ethanol and corn demand, while trade tensions keep soybeans and meal under pressure. Feed buyers may see mixed signals, with protein prices weak and corn supported by policy.
After 369 past bearish policy events, SOY moved a median -0.2% over 5 sessions (46% higher; middle half -1.7% to +1.8%), and +0.8% over 20.
After 223 past bearish policy events, SBM moved a median -0.3% over 5 sessions (45% higher; middle half -2.2% to +1.2%), and -0.6% over 20.
After 351 past bearish policy events, SBO moved a median -0.0% over 5 sessions (49% higher; middle half -1.7% to +1.8%), and -0.2% over 20.
After 318 past bullish policy events, CORN moved a median -0.1% over 5 sessions (48% higher; middle half -1.4% to +1.5%), and -0.2% over 20.
Moves of each commodity's benchmark from the last close before the event. Historical reads pool past events of the same kind; they describe what happened, not what will. Not investment advice.