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A FAPRI-MU analysis estimates that US tariffs on soybeans reduce US net farm income by about $4 billion per year starting in 2020. Researchers say African Swine Fever has cut Chinese soybean demand for a long period, even if trade restrictions were lifted.
Structural loss of Chinese hog-driven soymeal demand is bearish for soybean and meal prices over the medium term, regardless of a trade deal. Feed buyers should not expect a quick demand rebound.
brownfieldagnews.comJul 25, 2019After 369 past bearish policy events, Soybeans moved a median -0.2% over 5 sessions (46% higher; middle half -1.7% to +1.8%), and +0.8% over 20.
After 223 past bearish policy events, Soybean Meal moved a median -0.3% over 5 sessions (45% higher; middle half -2.2% to +1.2%), and -0.6% over 20.
Moves of each commodity's benchmark from the last close before the event. Historical reads pool past events of the same kind; they describe what happened, not what will. Not investment advice.
