July Chicago soybean oil fell 3.2% to $1,035/t on Friday amid reduced export demand, possible elimination of tariffs on Canadian rapeseed oil for US biofuel, and reports the White House will not cut small refinery biofuel mandates. Brent fell 2.4% to $62.8/barrel after OPEC+ raised output, then rebounded Monday.
India cut its basic import duty on crude palm, soybean and sunflower oil from 27.5% to 16.5% on May 30.
India's lower duty should boost vegetable oil import demand and support palm and sunflower oil prices, while weak US biofuel demand and crude keep soyoil under pressure.
After 351 past bearish policy events, SBO moved a median -0.0% over 5 sessions (49% higher; middle half -1.7% to +1.8%), and -0.2% over 20.
After 547 past bullish policy events, PALMOIL moved a median +0.4% over 5 sessions (61% higher; middle half -0.7% to +2.1%), and +0.9% over 20.
After 210 past bearish policy events, BRENT moved a median -0.9% over 5 sessions (48% higher; middle half -3.8% to +3.2%), and +0.2% over 20.
Moves of each commodity's benchmark from the last close before the event. Historical reads pool past events of the same kind; they describe what happened, not what will. Not investment advice.
Same report on biofuel policy uncertainty, weak exports and lower crude weighing on soyoil; momentum carried into Monday, partly offset by India's duty cut supporting demand.