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US soybean oil prices have stalled as biofuel policy and tax credit uncertainty continue into 2026. The shift from the Blenders Tax Credit to the 45Z credit in 2025 left treatment of foreign feedstocks unclear, and biofuel output slowed in 2025 on poor margins.
Trading sources hope for policy clarity in the first quarter.
Biofuel output drives soybean oil demand, so stalled output keeps soyoil and crush values under pressure. Clarity on 45Z could restore demand and support prices.
fastmarkets.comAmanda LuhavaljaJan 16, 2026After 351 past bearish policy events, SBO moved a median -0.0% over 5 sessions (49% higher; middle half -1.7% to +1.8%), and -0.2% over 20.
After 369 past bearish policy events, SOY moved a median -0.2% over 5 sessions (46% higher; middle half -1.7% to +1.8%), and +0.8% over 20.
Moves of each commodity's benchmark from the last close before the event. Historical reads pool past events of the same kind; they describe what happened, not what will. Not investment advice.
