
Grain trader ADM's 2026 profit forecast lags expectations as slow US government finalization of biofuel policies has slowed use of feedstocks such as soybean oil at its plants. The company said earnings could land near the top of its range.
Policy delays keep soybean oil demand from biofuels uncertain, which weighs on crush margins and soybean oil use, though the company's comments suggest some upside to earnings.
After 351 past bearish policy events, SBO moved a median -0.0% over 5 sessions (49% higher; middle half -1.7% to +1.8%), and -0.2% over 20.
After 554 past neutral policy events, SOY moved a median +0.0% over 5 sessions (51% higher; middle half -1.4% to +1.6%), and +0.6% over 20.
Moves of each commodity's benchmark from the last close before the event. Historical reads pool past events of the same kind; they describe what happened, not what will. Not investment advice.