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Archer Daniels Midland lowered its full-year 2025 outlook on Nov. 4, citing the deferral of US biofuel policy and a difficult global trade environment.
Its agricultural services and oilseeds operating profit fell 21% year over year to $379 million in the third quarter despite higher processed volumes.
Delayed biofuel policy weakens near-term demand signals for soybean oil and crushing margins, which points to softer soybean oil and soybean prices until clarity returns.
spglobal.comAditya Kondalamahanty, Samyak PandeyNov 4, 2025After 351 past bearish policy events, Soybean Oil moved a median -0.0% over 5 sessions (49% higher; middle half -1.7% to +1.8%), and -0.2% over 20.
After 369 past bearish policy events, Soybeans moved a median -0.2% over 5 sessions (46% higher; middle half -1.7% to +1.8%), and +0.8% over 20.
Moves of each commodity's benchmark from the last close before the event. Historical reads pool past events of the same kind; they describe what happened, not what will. Not investment advice.
