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Terrain economist Bree Baatz said federal and state biofuel policy uncertainty is shaping renewable diesel expansion and soybean demand. Renewable diesel output fell sharply in 2025 and soybeans have reportedly lost about 375 million bushels of demand over three crop years to substitute feedstocks.
Feedstock substitution and underused renewable diesel capacity cap soybean oil demand, weighing on crush margins until federal and state rules align.
allagnews.comTony St. JamesMar 23, 2026After 351 past bearish policy events, Soybean Oil moved a median -0.0% over 5 sessions (49% higher; middle half -1.7% to +1.8%), and -0.2% over 20.
After 369 past bearish policy events, Soybeans moved a median -0.2% over 5 sessions (46% higher; middle half -1.7% to +1.8%), and +0.8% over 20.
After 206 past neutral policy events, Soybean Meal moved a median -0.4% over 5 sessions (44% higher; middle half -2.3% to +1.8%), and -0.7% over 20.
Moves of each commodity's benchmark from the last close before the event. Historical reads pool past events of the same kind; they describe what happened, not what will. Not investment advice.
