CoBank warned that policy uncertainty and tariff disputes are undermining biobased diesel producers. Biodiesel and renewable diesel output fell 41% in January and February versus 2024, due to the loss of the blenders' tax credit and 45Z uncertainty.
Sharply reduced biodiesel and renewable diesel production cuts demand for vegetable oils, which is bearish for soybean oil prices until policy clarity returns.
After 351 past bearish policy events, Soybean Oil moved a median -0.0% over 5 sessions (49% higher; middle half -1.7% to +1.8%), and -0.2% over 20.
After 369 past bearish policy events, Soybeans moved a median -0.2% over 5 sessions (46% higher; middle half -1.7% to +1.8%), and +0.8% over 20.
Moves of each commodity's benchmark from the last close before the event. Historical reads pool past events of the same kind; they describe what happened, not what will. Not investment advice.