EPA’s final 2020 RFS rule adds more uncertainty to US biofuel policy

After 351 past bearish policy events, SBO moved a median -0.0% over 5 sessions (49% higher; middle half -1.7% to +1.8%), and -0.2% over 20.

• Apr 1, 2019NBB calls on EPA to reform small refinery exemptions - Biofuels International Magazine+2.8%
• Feb 3, 2026Grain trader ADM's 2026 profit forecast lags expectations amid US biofuel policy uncertainty | Reuters+3.1%
• Nov 13, 2019US biodiesel industry dependent on tax credit, RFS to compete with fossil-based diesel - Biofuels International Magazine-0.2%
• May 9, 2017Congress urged to extend biodiesel blenders’ tax credit - Biofuels International Magazine+0.9%
• Jan 16, 2026US soybean oil prices stall amid biofuel policy, 45Z uncertainty: 2026 preview - Fastmarkets+1.3%

After 439 past neutral policy events, CORN moved a median +0.1% over 5 sessions (51% higher; middle half -1.3% to +1.2%), and +1.1% over 20.

• Jan 2, 2025Biofuels Positioned for 2025 Success Despite Policy Uncertainty-0.5%
• Mar 9, 2017Biodiesel leaders push for producer’s tax credit, cite jobs and economic benefits - Biofuels International Magazine+0.5%
• May 15, 2020EPA delivers proposed rule to set 2021 RFS RVOs to OMB | Biodiesel Magazine-0.3%
• Dec 19, 2019EPA Issues Final 2020-21 RFS Rule - American Soybean Association+0.5%
• Jul 5, 2019Biofuel industry criticizes EPA’s 2020 RFS levels+1.9%