
The Trump administration proposed a modest increase in the 2020 biofuel blending quota to 20.04 billion gallons, up 0.6% from 2019. The plan keeps biomass-based diesel at 2.43 billion gallons for 2021, and the administration is weighing how to handle small refinery waivers.
A small quota increase with no reallocation of waived volumes leaves corn ethanol and soybean oil demand roughly flat, limiting upside in feedstock prices.
After 439 past neutral policy events, Corn moved a median +0.1% over 5 sessions (51% higher; middle half -1.3% to +1.2%), and +1.1% over 20.
After 196 past neutral policy events, Soybean Oil moved a median +0.1% over 5 sessions (52% higher; middle half -1.6% to +2.0%), and -0.5% over 20.
Moves of each commodity's benchmark from the last close before the event. Historical reads pool past events of the same kind; they describe what happened, not what will. Not investment advice.