
EPA released final 2019 RFS volume targets that biofuel groups said were a missed opportunity because lost volumes from refinery waivers were not reallocated. The rule kept conventional volumes at 15 billion gallons and raised advanced and biomass-based diesel targets.
Unreallocated waivers mean actual blending demand falls short of headline targets, which limits the upside for ethanol and soy oil. The net effect on feedstock prices is modest.
After 842 past bullish policy events, Soybean Oil moved a median +0.2% over 5 sessions (52% higher; middle half -1.6% to +2.1%), and -0.5% over 20.
After 439 past neutral policy events, Corn moved a median +0.1% over 5 sessions (51% higher; middle half -1.3% to +1.2%), and +1.1% over 20.
Moves of each commodity's benchmark from the last close before the event. Historical reads pool past events of the same kind; they describe what happened, not what will. Not investment advice.