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U.S. ethanol exports and soybean oil use for biofuels reached records in 2024. Analysts flag warning signs including a forecast 17% drop in biodiesel use for 2025 and softening ethanol margins.
Expected biodiesel demand declines weigh on soybean oil, while uncertainty over biofuel policy and trade retaliation adds risk to corn and oil demand.
farmprogress.comBruce BlytheFeb 5, 2025After 351 past bearish policy events, Soybean Oil moved a median -0.0% over 5 sessions (49% higher; middle half -1.7% to +1.8%), and -0.2% over 20.
After 439 past neutral policy events, Corn moved a median +0.1% over 5 sessions (51% higher; middle half -1.3% to +1.2%), and +1.1% over 20.
Moves of each commodity's benchmark from the last close before the event. Historical reads pool past events of the same kind; they describe what happened, not what will. Not investment advice.
