RaboResearch said renewable diesel production has grown ahead of demand, with nameplate capacity expanding 115% between 2022 and 2024. EPA finalized 2023 RVO mandates in June well below capacity, which led to front-loaded BBD compliance and a crash in advanced BBD prices from September.
Oversupply of biomass-based diesel reduces demand for soybean oil and weakens soybean crush margins, pressuring soybean prices.
After 351 past bearish policy events, Soybean Oil moved a median -0.0% over 5 sessions (49% higher; middle half -1.7% to +1.8%), and -0.2% over 20.
After 369 past bearish policy events, Soybeans moved a median -0.2% over 5 sessions (46% higher; middle half -1.7% to +1.8%), and +0.8% over 20.
Moves of each commodity's benchmark from the last close before the event. Historical reads pool past events of the same kind; they describe what happened, not what will. Not investment advice.