As Biofuel Policy Clouds Soybean Crush Outlook, Capacity Expansion in Kansas Offers Bright Spot

After 554 past neutral policy events, Soybeans moved a median +0.0% over 5 sessions (51% higher; middle half -1.4% to +1.6%), and +0.6% over 20.

• Oct 14, 2026Has Biofuel Demand Replaced Export Demand in U.S. Soybean Markets? - American Soybean Association-2.3%
• Dec 19, 201710 Years of Biodiesel in the RFS - American Soybean Association-0.2%
• Nov 30, 2017RFS Volumes Again Fail to Capture Biodiesel’s Potential - American Soybean Association+1.0%
• Feb 3, 2026Grain trader ADM's 2026 profit forecast lags expectations amid US biofuel policy uncertainty | Reuters+4.8%
• Apr 9, 2024Brazilian crushers buy back soybean oil export positions to sell domestically - Fastmarkets-2.0%

After 351 past bearish policy events, Soybean Oil moved a median -0.0% over 5 sessions (49% higher; middle half -1.7% to +1.8%), and -0.2% over 20.

• Mar 23, 2026Renewable Diesel Policy Uncertainty Clouds Soybean Crush Outlook -+0.7%
• Jul 22, 2023Final RVOs discount industry's biofuel capabilities - Kansas Soybeans+3.6%
• Aug 18, 2025Soybean oil in the biofuel era: An industry expert’s perspective+3.0%
• Nov 4, 2025ADM cuts 2025 outlook on US biofuel policy delays, trade woes+1.2%
• Oct 28, 2024Cargill, Bunge Slow Soybean Buying on Stalled US Biofuels Policy - Bloomberg+3.9%

After 206 past neutral policy events, Soybean Meal moved a median -0.4% over 5 sessions (44% higher; middle half -2.3% to +1.8%), and -0.7% over 20.

• Mar 23, 2026Renewable Diesel Policy Uncertainty Clouds Soybean Crush Outlook --2.2%
• Nov 30, 2022Surging US Biofuel Production Stokes Soybean Crush Demand+8.9%
• Oct 28, 2024Cargill, Bunge Slow Soybean Buying on Stalled US Biofuels Policy - Bloomberg-3.2%
• Aug 30, 2021Biofuel rumors loom over soybean market - McKeany-Flavell-3.1%
• Apr 28, 2022Soy oil soars to record as Indonesia expands palm export ban-4.9%