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Brazilian crushers and traders are buying back soybean oil export positions to sell physical product domestically, where prices are paying 2-5 cents per lb above export parity. Strong local biodiesel demand follows Brazil's raise of the blending mandate to B14 in March, with a bill proposing rises to 20% by 2030 now before the Senate.
Domestic biodiesel pull diverts Brazilian soybean oil away from export markets, tightening global vegetable oil supply and supporting soybean oil prices while reducing export availability.
fastmarkets.comEduardo Tinti, Leticia PakulskiApr 9, 2024After 842 past bullish policy events, Soybean Oil moved a median +0.2% over 5 sessions (52% higher; middle half -1.6% to +2.1%), and -0.5% over 20.
After 554 past neutral policy events, Soybeans moved a median +0.0% over 5 sessions (51% higher; middle half -1.4% to +1.6%), and +0.6% over 20.
After 548 past bullish policy events, Palm Oil moved a median +0.4% over 5 sessions (61% higher; middle half -0.7% to +2.1%), and +0.9% over 20.
Moves of each commodity's benchmark from the last close before the event. Historical reads pool past events of the same kind; they describe what happened, not what will. Not investment advice.
